Faith Nyasuguta
African countries are being drawn deeper into the escalating trade war between China and the United States, as Beijing issues a stern warning against nations that strike economic deals with Washington at China’s expense. With both superpowers vying for influence, the continent faces mounting pressure to choose sides in a battle that could reshape its economic and geopolitical future.
This latest warning comes from China’s Ministry of Commerce, which condemned what it described as Washington’s attempt to economically and diplomatically isolate Beijing through targeted trade agreements. The ministry urged other countries to resist U.S. pressure and not be swayed by what it labeled “unilateral bullying.”
“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the ministry stated. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner.”
The declaration is part of a broader response to a renewed and increasingly aggressive trade offensive by President Donald Trump, who has accused China of exploiting global trade systems, manipulating markets, and undermining American industries. In recent speeches, Trump referred to China as a “manipulative and ungrateful trading partner” and vowed to hold Beijing accountable for what he described as years of economic abuse.
Trump’s administration is now leveraging trade talks with various countries, including African nations, as part of a strategy to limit China’s global reach. But that strategy may come at a cost, particularly for African governments that rely heavily on Chinese investment and trade.
Several African nations were hit hard by U.S. tariffs recently imposed on “Liberation Day,” with duties ranging from 10% on goods from Kenya, Ghana, and Ethiopia, to as high as 50% on imports from Lesotho. In response, some countries,including Lesotho and Zimbabwe, have expressed interest in strengthening trade ties with Washington in hopes of offsetting the economic fallout.
For many African leaders, diversifying partnerships and reducing dependence on China appears to be an attractive option, especially as the continent grapples with rising debt, inflation, and a slow post-pandemic recovery. The prospect of closer ties with the U.S. could also mean access to more favorable trade terms, particularly through initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which once granted duty-free access to U.S. markets for many sub-Saharan African countries.
However, analysts are unsure whether Trump would reinstate AGOA under his current administration, given his emphasis on reciprocal trade and tougher conditions. This uncertainty, paired with China’s recent threat, puts African nations in a precarious position.
China remains Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner, accounting for around 20% of the region’s exports and 16% of its imports. In 2023, trade between China and Africa reached a record $282 billion, driven largely by raw material exports from Africa and manufactured imports from China. The economic relationship also includes billions in infrastructure funding, loans, and development projects.
If Beijing follows through on its warning, the consequences could be severe. Chinese retaliation might include cutting back on investments, delaying key infrastructure projects, or imposing new trade restrictions, moves that could have long-term effects on African economies.
Caught between two economic giants, African nations now face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they are eager to explore new partnerships and diversify their trade networks. On the other, they risk alienating a long-time ally whose influence on the continent is deeply entrenched.
The choices made in the coming months could determine not only the trajectory of Africa’s economic development but also its position in an increasingly divided global order.
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