Faith Nyasuguta
African Union (AU) mediators have arrived in Juba, South Sudan, for urgent talks aimed at preventing a return to civil war. Their intervention follows the house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar, a move that has heightened tensions in the country.
Machar, a longtime rival of President Salva Kiir, led rebel forces during the 2013-2018 conflict, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. His detention last Wednesday came amid ongoing clashes in Upper Nile State between government forces and the White Army militia. Although Machar’s forces were previously allied with the White Army during the civil war, they deny any current ties.
The AU delegation, which arrived in Juba on Wednesday afternoon, includes members of the Council of the Wise, such as former Burundian President Domitien Ndayizeye and former Kenyan judge Effie Owuor. Machar’s SPLM-IO party issued a statement welcoming the delegation, describing its visit as part of ongoing efforts to ease tensions and support the peace process.
Meanwhile, the AU’s Peace and Security Council called on Tuesday for Machar’s “immediate and unconditional release,” warning that his detention threatens the 2018 peace deal that ended the war.
Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Odinga also arrived in Juba on Monday on behalf of an East African regional bloc to mediate between the rival factions. While he met with Kiir, he was denied access to Machar.
Analysts suggest that Kiir, 73, is consolidating his political position amid growing unrest within his camp. The ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan has further destabilized the region, contributing to an influx of weapons.
The 2013-2018 war was marked by ethnic divisions, with Kiir’s Dinka-led forces clashing against Machar’s Nuer-aligned troops. The latest developments risk reigniting those deep-seated tensions.
The AU’s Panel of the Wise, dispatched by AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, is expected to engage with all stakeholders to enhance mediation efforts and support the full implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS).
The AU has urged all parties to uphold the provisions of the R-ARCSS, emphasizing its commitment to South Sudan’s transition to durable peace and democracy. The pan-African bloc remains actively engaged with regional and international partners, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the East African Community (EAC), and the United Nations.
The AU delegation’s arrival signals a renewed push for diplomacy, but the road ahead remains uncertain. The fragile peace agreement has been tested repeatedly, and Machar’s detention has only deepened mistrust between the rival factions.
The United Nations peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has warned that renewed conflict will devastate not only South Sudan but also the entire region. The head of UNMISS, Nicholas Haysom, urged all parties to exercise restraint and uphold the Revitalized Peace Agreement.
The U.S. State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs has also weighed in, urging Kiir to reverse Machar’s house arrest and prevent further escalation.
Tensions have been increasing between Kiir and Machar’s parties, particularly since the March attack on an army base. The government responded with airstrikes, warning civilians in the area to vacate or “face consequences.”
More than a dozen people have died since the airstrikes began in mid-March. Earlier in March, several of Machar’s senior allies were arrested by security forces, an action his supporters condemned as a “grave violation” of the peace deal.
As the AU mediators begin their work, the stakes are high. The success or failure of these negotiations could reshape South Sudan’s future, determining whether peace is achievable or if further instability lies ahead.
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