Faith Nyasuguta
Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame launched his bid for a fourth term amidst a vibrant display of party colors at a university campus in Musanze’s northern district two weeks ago. The event marked the beginning of his re-election campaign, aiming to extend his presidency as Rwanda prepares for simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections next Monday.
Kagame’s campaign launch was a spectacle of enthusiasm and fervor, but behind the scenes, concerns about the integrity of Rwanda’s electoral process loom large. Political analysts and civil society members warn that the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled for next Monday, may only serve to tighten Kagame’s already firm grip on the nation of 13 million people.
His party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), has long dominated Rwanda’s political landscape, often quashing criticism and dissent.
Kagame’s rise to power began in 1994 when he led the RPF to defeat Hutu extremist forces, ending a genocide that resulted in the deaths of over 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis, within approximately 100 days. Following this victory, Kagame held roles as vice-president and defense minister before being elected president by parliament in 2000 after Pasteur Bizimungu’s resignation. Each subsequent election—in 2003, 2010, and 2017—saw Kagame securing over 90% of the vote.
To Kagame’s administration, Rwandan politics remains deeply influenced by the 1994 genocide’s legacy, necessitating a continuation of consensus politics. David Kiwuwa, an associate professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham, noted that this approach often places human rights as a secondary priority. Kagame’s supporters argue that his prolonged leadership is essential for maintaining stability and fostering development.
Under Kagame’s rule, Rwanda has seen significant transformations. The country’s infrastructure has improved, access to electricity has expanded, and corruption has decreased. Kigali, the capital, has evolved from a city ravaged by genocide into a bustling metropolis with clean streets and modern buildings. Rwanda has also positioned itself as a regional hub for sports, culture, and conferences, hosting events such as the Basketball Africa League finals at the BK Arena.
Despite these achievements, Kagame’s presidency has been marred by allegations of authoritarianism. Many critics and dissidents have been jailed, disappeared, or died under suspicious circumstances. Human Rights Watch reports that at least five opposition members and four journalists have faced such fates since the 2017 presidential election.
Clementine de Montjoye, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, highlighted the increasing repression of dissent in Rwanda, noting the severe consequences faced by those who dare to speak out.
Rwanda’s political environment is further reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, which rates the country as “not free” with a score of 23 out of 100. The report points to the lack of free and fair elections, restricted opportunities for political opposition, limited media freedom, and compromised judicial independence. Rwanda is one of only 12 countries that have been consistently rated “not free” since Freedom House began its assessments.
Eight candidates applied to the Rwandan national electoral commission to contest the presidential election, but only two were cleared, with the rest disqualified for various reasons. Prominent Kagame critic Diane Rwigara was barred from running due to alleged documentation issues.
Similarly, opposition figures Victoire Ingabire and Bernard Ntaganda were disqualified because of past convictions. These disqualifications have effectively sidelined significant opposition, leaving the election with limited competition.
Kagame’s remaining challengers are familiar faces from the 2017 election: Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent candidate and former journalist. In the last election, Mpayimana received just 0.72% of the vote, while Habineza garnered 0.45%. Despite their slim chances, their supporters remain hopeful for change. Agnes Bateta, a shop attendant and supporter of Habineza, expressed a common sentiment: “Many people want change but cannot say it openly for fear of reprisals.”
Analysts contend that Habineza and Mpayimana lack the name recognition, financial resources, and organizational capacity to pose a serious threat to Kagame. Kiwuwa, from the University of Nottingham, predicted that Kagame is likely to secure another overwhelming victory, potentially matching or nearing his previous election results.
Kagame’s rallies continue to draw tens of thousands, while his opponents struggle to muster significant support. However, his critics argue that the suppression of political opposition undermines the democratic process. Joshua Osih, an opposition lawmaker and national chairman of the Social Democratic Front (SDF) party, condemned the election delay as a democratic misstep.
International observers and allies are closely watching Rwanda’s political developments, given its growing regional influence. Earlier this year, the UK signed a bill to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, but newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced plans to scrap the agreement. Meanwhile, the US and the UN have accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a claim Kagame has denied.
As Rwanda prepares for the upcoming elections, the nation’s political future remains uncertain. With a total of 9.5 million registered voters, including about 2 million first-time voters, the outcome will be crucial not only for Kagame’s presidency but also for the direction of Rwanda’s democracy and its place in the international community.
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