Faith Nyasuguta
Longstanding rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea could be heading toward war, officials in Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region have warned, raising fears of another humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa. Direct clashes between two of Africa’s largest armies would not only shatter the fragile peace but could also draw in other regional powers, experts say.
Such a conflict would be a devastating blow to the historic reconciliation for which Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. It would also worsen an already dire humanitarian situation, where aid cuts have hampered efforts to support millions affected by conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
“At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” warned General Tsadkan Gebretensae, vice president of Tigray’s interim administration, in an article published by The Africa Report on Monday.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deep roots. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a 30-year struggle. The two nations then fought a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000, with hostilities simmering for years after. A peace agreement in 2018 seemed to mend relations, but recent events suggest the rivalry is reigniting.
The latest crisis traces back to Ethiopia’s devastating 2020-2022 civil war, where federal forces fought the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), leaving hundreds of thousands dead. After the war, the TPLF fractured. One faction now governs Tigray with federal support, while another opposes this arrangement. On Tuesday, the dissident faction seized control of the northern town of Adigrat, sparking fears of wider conflict.
Getachew Reda, head of Tigray’s interim administration, appealed for federal support, warning that the Tigrayan people could once again become victims of a war they never wanted. “There is clear antagonism between Ethiopia and Eritrea,” Getachew said, expressing fears that his people would be caught in the crossfire.
Though Ethiopia’s federal government has remained silent on the rising tensions, signs of military buildup are clear. Two diplomatic sources and two Tigrayan officials told Reuters that Ethiopian troops have recently moved toward the Eritrean border. Eritrea, for its part, ordered a nationwide military mobilization in mid-February, according to UK-based Human Rights Concern – Eritrea.
While Eritrea’s Information Minister dismissed Tsadkan’s warnings as “war-mongering psychosis,” international observers are concerned. Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, former U.S. and EU envoys to the region, wrote in Foreign Policy that “the deterioration of the political and security situation in Tigray is dry tinder waiting for a match.”
Adding fuel to the fire, Eritrean officials have grown increasingly alarmed by Abiy’s repeated assertions since 2023 that landlocked Ethiopia has a right to sea access, a statement some analysts see as a veiled threat against Eritrea, which borders the Red Sea. In response, Eritrea has strengthened its alliances, signing a security pact with Egypt and Somalia last October in what many view as a move to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions.
The prospect of renewed war has horrified those who survived previous conflicts. Civilians, still recovering from years of violence, face the grim reality that the fragile peace could crumble once again. Aid agencies warn that another war would deepen an already severe humanitarian crisis, displacing thousands more and cutting off crucial aid routes.
As both nations quietly mobilize, the Horn of Africa braces for what could be a catastrophic conflict. For many in the region, the scars of past wars remain fresh, and the looming threat of another clash brings fear that history is about to repeat itself.
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