Faith Nyasuguta
International agencies have warned that the Horn of Africa is expected to experience below-average rainfall during the October-December season, potentially leading to drought conditions.
The warning came from the United Nations World Food Programme, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and the Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) of the East African bloc of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
Climate models have predicted a transition to La Nina conditions in the second half of 2024, which could bring below-average rainfall. “The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya,” the agencies said in an alert issued in Nairobi, Kenya. Other countries likely to be affected include Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, where the second rainy season occurs from October to December.
The agencies highlighted that below-average rains would likely lead to “crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition.”
They called on humanitarian partners to collaborate with local and national governments to support contingency planning, preparedness activities, and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of the potential below-average rains.
The Horn of Africa has experienced severe droughts in the past, including in 2010/2011, 2016/2017, and 2020/2023. These events were characterized by consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, exacerbated by higher-than-usual temperatures. The droughts led to severe pasture and water shortages, livestock fatalities, failed cropping seasons, population displacements, rising food prices, worsening human health, and widespread food insecurity and malnutrition among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities.
According to the WFP, about 20.4 million people across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia are currently facing high levels of food insecurity and require urgent assistance. Acute malnutrition remains a major concern, with estimates indicating that more than 6.2 million children under five years will suffer from acute malnutrition in 2024 in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Of these, 1.7 million children are expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition.
The agencies urged immediate action to prepare for the anticipated drought and to implement measures to reduce its impact on vulnerable populations in the region. This includes engaging with local communities and governments to ensure that adequate resources and plans are in place to address the expected challenges.
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