Faith Nyasuguta
Namibia is heading to the polls in a closely watched election that could challenge the dominance of the ruling Swapo Party, which has held power since the country gained independence from South Africa in 1990. The party’s parliamentary majority and its hold on the presidency are at risk, particularly if a wave of disillusioned young voters, driven by high unemployment, turn out in large numbers.
Swapo’s support has weakened significantly in recent years, echoing trends in neighboring countries like South Africa and Botswana, where long-ruling parties lost their majorities earlier this year. Many young Namibians, especially those under 35 who make up 42% of the electorate, do not share the historical connection to Swapo’s role in the fight against South Africa’s apartheid regime. This generational shift, coupled with economic struggles, has created fertile ground for opposition candidates.
Despite the growing discontent, Namibia’s opposition remains fragmented. Analysts believe the ruling party retains a strong support base in the rural, densely populated northern regions. Rui Tyitende, a lecturer at the University of Namibia, noted, “Swapo has been a party in decline, but based on the 2019 elections, they will likely remain dominant. However, if young voters turn out in significant numbers, it could force a runoff in the presidential election.”
In 2019, Swapo’s candidate, Hage Geingob, won the presidency with 56% of the vote, a sharp decline from the 87% he achieved in 2014. The party secured 65% of the parliamentary vote. This year, the race is tighter, with Vice-President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah running against Panduleni Itula, a former Swapo member and the runner-up in the 2019 presidential election.
Nandi-Ndaitwah, who could become Namibia’s first female president, needs more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. The 72-year-old is regarded as a seasoned diplomat and a credible candidate untainted by corruption scandals. Political analyst Rakkel Andreas said, “She comes across as a stateswoman, knowledgeable in public policy, and capable of leading the country.”
Itula, on the other hand, represents change and has positioned himself as a candidate of hope. He left Swapo to form the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) and is focusing his campaign on tackling Namibia’s unemployment crisis. According to the World Bank,
Namibia’s unemployment rate in 2023 stood at 19.4%, with youth unemployment soaring to 40%. Andreas observed, “What Itula represents is change, hope for change. This resonates deeply with the youth struggling with joblessness.”
With no opinion polls conducted, predicting the election outcome in this nation of 3 million people remains challenging. However, political observers agree this will be Namibia’s most competitive election since independence. Graham Hopwood, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, commented, “It’s clear this will be the closest election since 1990. Swapo will likely remain dominant, but the extent of its dominance is uncertain.”
The stakes are high for both candidates and the electorate. If Nandi-Ndaitwah wins outright, it will reaffirm Swapo’s hold on power, albeit with a reduced majority. If Itula forces a runoff, it will mark a significant turning point in Namibian politics, signaling a move towards a more competitive political landscape driven by the demands of a younger, disillusioned generation.
As Namibians cast their votes, the election serves as a litmus test for the future of Swapo’s political dominance and the role of youth in shaping the country’s political and economic trajectory.
RELATED:
