Faith Nyasuguta
In recent months, Tanzania has witnessed a chilling rise in abductions, brutal killings, and arrests, casting a shadow over the political hope once associated with President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership. The country, which seemed to embrace a new era of political openness following her ascent to power in 2021, now appears to be regressing into the repression and authoritarianism that characterized the rule of her predecessor, John Magufuli.
When Samia Suluhu Hassan became Tanzania’s first female president, many were hopeful that her leadership would bring about lasting democratic reforms. Her early actions seemed to indicate a departure from the oppressive tactics used by Magufuli. Opposition parties were allowed to organize rallies, voice criticisms of the government, and engage in political discourse without fear of harsh reprisals. It was a significant change in a country where dissent had often been met with heavy-handed responses.
However, recent events paint a different picture. Two senior opposition leaders have been arrested twice within a span of weeks, while another opposition official, Ali Kibao, was abducted, murdered, and had his body doused in acid. The brutality of these incidents has shaken the political climate, leading many to question the direction in which Tanzania is heading.
Tundu Lissu, the deputy leader of the main opposition party ‘Chadema’, has been a vocal critic of the current administration. He expressed grave concerns about the political situation in Tanzania, describing it as “worrisome in the extreme.”
Lissu himself is no stranger to political violence; in 2017, he survived an assassination attempt when his car was riddled with bullets. The attack left him seriously injured, and he spent years in exile before returning to Tanzania last year, hopeful that President Samia’s administration would usher in a new chapter of political tolerance.
However, Lissu’s optimism has since waned. He now believes that the promised reforms were a facade, noting the resurgence of state-orchestrated violence and repression reminiscent of the Magufuli era. He criticized the lack of democratic reforms and alleged that the security forces were involved in the violent incidents. The Tanzanian police have denied these accusations, but the recent crackdown has undoubtedly tarnished President Samia’s image as a reformer.
The international community has taken notice. Human rights groups and Western diplomats have condemned the arbitrary arrests and detentions, calling for independent and transparent investigations into the killings and abductions. In response, President Samia has warned foreign entities against meddling in Tanzania’s internal affairs, though she did publicly denounce the murder of Kibao and order an investigation into the matter. She emphasized that Tanzania is a democracy and that all citizens have the right to live in peace, urging unity in the face of violence.
Political analysts have weighed in on the situation, pointing to a breakdown in dialogue between the ruling party and the opposition. Tanzanian political analyst Thomas Kibwana noted that the lack of good faith on both sides has stalled reforms. While President Samia initially appeared open to dialogue, Chadema, frustrated by the lack of progress, has increasingly resorted to protests. Kibwana suggested that both the government and opposition must return to the negotiating table if they hope to avoid further escalation.
At the start of her presidency, Samia Suluhu Hassan championed the “four Rs” – reconciliation, resilience, reforms, and rebuilding. Her efforts to engage with the opposition and initiate reforms won her praise both domestically and internationally. Billboards in Tanzania’s capital, Dodoma, depicted her as the “president of all Tanzanians,” emphasizing her commitment to uniting the country across political, ethnic, and religious lines. However, with local government elections on the horizon and national elections set for next year, the political climate has become increasingly tense.
Samia’s presidency, which began with such promise, now faces its first major electoral test. Having inherited the presidency after Magufuli’s sudden death in 2021, she has yet to contest a national election as the head of the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
CCM has dominated Tanzanian politics since the country’s independence in 1961, winning every election to date. However, the growing dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of opposition figures and its reluctance to pursue meaningful reforms has led some to question whether CCM’s grip on power might be weakening.
According to Dorothy Semu, the leader of the second-largest opposition party ACT-Wazalendo, President Samia’s reform agenda has been stymied by fears within CCM that too many reforms could lead to electoral defeat. Semu claims that certain members of the ruling party have expressed concerns that if the president continued her initial pace of reforms, it could cost CCM control of the government.
Despite these concerns, Semu acknowledges that the political environment is less oppressive than it was under Magufuli. While government officials may still act with an air of entitlement, there is now greater freedom to hold political rallies and engage in political discourse. “We have a more open civic space,” Semu said, though she cautioned that as elections approach, the opposition remains wary of potential government crackdowns.
Lawyer and activist Fatma Karume has argued that genuine reform in Tanzania will require a fundamental overhaul of the country’s legal system. She criticized the concentration of power in the presidency, calling for constitutional changes that would limit the president’s authority. “We have something called an imperial presidency,” Karume said, pointing out that while Samia may be less oppressive than her predecessor, the current system still grants the president too much power.
As Tanzania approaches its next election cycle, the future of the country’s democracy hangs in the balance. While President Samia began her tenure with a focus on reconciliation and reform, the recent wave of political violence and repression has cast doubt on her ability – or willingness- to carry out the necessary changes. With growing pressure from both domestic and international actors, it remains to be seen whether Tanzania will move toward greater political openness or slide back into authoritarianism.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on Tanzania as it navigates this critical period. The stakes are high, not only for the political future of the country but for the lives of those who dare to speak out against the government. It will be a moment to see whether President Samia can live up to her early promises of reform or if Tanzania will continue to be haunted by the ghosts of its authoritarian past.
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