Faith Nyasuguta
Turkey has made a major oil discovery in Somalia, uncovering an estimated 20 billion barrels of commercially viable crude in two of the three offshore blocks it currently operates. This breakthrough significantly strengthens Turkey’s presence in East Africa’s energy scene and marks a major milestone in Somalia’s untapped oil ambitions.
The oil was found in two of the three blocks Turkey currently operates in Somalia. While the third block is still under exploration, early reports suggest it could also hold oil in commercial quantities, with final results expected by August 2025. If confirmed, the entire venture could drastically reshape Somalia’s role in regional energy dynamics and solidify Turkey’s stake in the continent’s oil game.
The Somali Guardian, citing government insiders, reports that this discovery follows a controversial agreement signed last month between Turkey and Somalia. The deal grants Turkey extensive privileges, sparking both excitement and concern within the region.
A Highstakes Deal
On March 7, 2024, Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Somalia’s Petroleum Minister Abdirizak Omar Mohamed signed a sweeping bilateral hydrocarbons agreement in Istanbul. The agreement has been hailed by some as a lifeline for Somalia’s struggling economy, and by others as a dangerous surrender of the country’s natural wealth.
Under the deal, Turkey is entitled to 90% of the oil and gas output, far above typical international agreements. Even more controversial are the financial terms: Turkey is exempt from paying upfront fees like signature bonuses or administrative charges, essentially giving Turkish companies free entry into Somali oil blocks.
In addition, Turkey is allowed to recover up to 90% of annual oil and gas production as “cost petroleum”, covering operational expenses before any profits are shared. Somalia is left with only a 5% royalty cap, and that figure doesn’t include petroleum used during operations or reinjected into the ground.
Critics say the agreement cuts Somalia out of meaningful revenue and oversight. Turkey can export its share at global market prices, keep all earnings abroad, and even transfer rights to third parties without informing Somalia or maintaining any presence in the country. For many, this spells a dangerous lack of transparency and long-term dependency.
Strategic Moves & Worries
Somalia’s offshore and coastal regions are believed to hold up to 30 billion barrels of oil and 6 billion cubic meters of natural gas. With these kinds of figures, Somalia is fast becoming a key target for global energy powers.
Turkey’s involvement appears to be more than just business, it’s part of a broader geopolitical strategy. Ankara has steadily increased its presence in Somalia over the past decade, investing in military training, infrastructure, education, and now energy.
While some warn this could amount to modern resource colonization, others see it as an overdue partnership. For a country like Somalia, still recovering from decades of conflict and state collapse, foreign investment is hard to resist.
Somalia President Defends Deal
Facing mounting backlash from Somali lawmakers, civil society groups, and regional observers, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has come out strongly in defense of the deal.
“This is not about favoring Turkey,” the president said in a recent statement. “Turkey is simply the first country to step up and show a real commitment to investing in Somalia.”
Mohamud stressed that Somalia is not yet an oil-producing nation and that the road to production takes years. But this agreement, he argues, is a “historic milestone” that will finally unlock the country’s long-hidden energy potential.
“Oil exploration is already happening offshore,” he noted. “Now, with this deal, exploration will begin along Somalia’s coastal areas.”
The president also reminded critics that Somalia had long struggled to attract stable, long-term partners in oil exploration. Previous efforts, including deals with major international firms before 1991, were cut short by civil war and instability.
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