Faith Nyasuguta
The detention of South Sudan’s First Vice-President Riek Machar has thrown the country’s fragile peace into crisis, with his party declaring that the 2018 peace agreement has effectively collapsed. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO) has warned that the nation is on the brink of a return to widespread conflict.
Machar was taken into custody late Wednesday when an armed convoy, led by top security officials including the defense minister, entered his residence in Juba. His bodyguards were disarmed, and he was detained alongside his wife, Interior Minister Angelina Teny, SPLM/IO officials said.
The government has yet to comment on the reported house arrest, but President Salva Kiir assured religious leaders on Wednesday that he would not return the country to war. However, the dramatic arrest has triggered immediate concerns both within South Sudan and internationally. The United Nations, the African Union, and regional leaders have urged restraint, while the United States has called for Machar’s immediate release.
The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has warned that the country risks losing the hard-won progress of the past seven years if tensions escalate further. “Tonight, the country’s leaders stand on the brink of relapsing into widespread conflict,” the mission said in a statement. South Sudan’s peace deal, signed in 2018, ended a brutal five-year civil war that killed nearly 400,000 people and displaced millions. However, tensions between President Kiir and Machar have remained high over the years, often flaring into sporadic violence. Ethnic divisions, power struggles, and economic hardships have only deepened the cracks in their uneasy partnership.
This week, the UN reported that barrel bombs, believed to contain a highly flammable liquid, were used in airstrikes during clashes between the army and a rebel group previously linked to Machar. The growing violence has raised fears that the country could slip back into full-scale war. The crisis has been further complicated by reports that Ugandan troops and battle tanks have been deployed in South Sudan at the request of President Kiir.
Yasmin Sooka, chair of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, warned that this could violate the UN arms embargo and increase the risk of regional conflict. “The growing involvement of foreign forces raises serious concerns about the safety of civilians and the stability of the region,” Sooka said.
Several international missions have begun evacuating their personnel as tensions rise. The British and US embassies have reduced their diplomatic staff, while the Norwegian and German embassies have closed their operations in Juba. The US Bureau of African Affairs urged President Kiir to de-escalate the situation, writing on X, “We urge President Kiir to reverse this action & prevent further escalation.”
Meanwhile, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are expected to send high-level delegations to Juba on Friday to mediate the crisis. SPLM/IO officials have urged their members and the public to remain calm while diplomatic efforts continue.
The situation in Juba remains tense, with a heavy military presence reported around Machar’s residence. Civil society leader Edmund Yakani described the public mood as one of fear and uncertainty. “There is a high chance of full-scale war, but this time, it will be more deadly and more violent because of the need for revenge,” Yakani told AFP.
SPLM/IO deputy leader Oyet Nathaniel Pierino echoed these concerns, stating that the peace agreement is now in jeopardy. “The prospect for peace and stability in South Sudan has now been put into serious jeopardy,” he said. Reath Muoch Tang, chairman of the SPLM/IO’s foreign relations committee, confirmed that Machar remains under house arrest but claimed security officials initially attempted to take him away. “An arrest warrant was delivered to him under unclear charges,” Tang said, calling the action a “blatant violation of the constitution and the Revitalized Peace Agreement.”
As the political crisis deepens, clashes have erupted between forces loyal to Kiir and Machar in Nasir, a northern town in the oil-rich Upper Nile State. Fighting in such a key region could further destabilize South Sudan’s fragile economy, which relies heavily on oil exports.
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