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EXPLAINER: WHAT HAPPENED IN SYRIA? HOW BASHAR AL-ASSAD’S REGIME COLLAPSED

EXPLAINER: WHAT HAPPENED IN SYRIA? HOW BASHAR AL-ASSAD’S REGIME COLLAPSED
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Faith Nyasuguta 

In the early hours of Sunday morning, opposition forces declared Syria liberated from the grip of President Bashar al-Assad. The announcement marked the dramatic end of 53 years of al-Assad family rule, nearly 14 years after peaceful protests against the regime spiraled into a devastating civil war. As the opposition surged into Damascus, the capital, al-Assad reportedly fled the city, leaving his exact whereabouts unknown.

However, it was later established that Bashar Al-Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow, Russia and had been granted asylum “out of humanitarian considerations“, according to Russian news agencies that quoted a Kremlin source .

The collapse of the regime has been described as historic, shocking many who observed the regime’s apparent strength just a week earlier. So, how did it all unravel so quickly?

The Beginning of the End

Bashar al-Assad /North Press/

The decisive blow began on November 27, when a coalition of Syrian opposition groups launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression. This offensive targeted pro-government forces, starting with an attack along the frontline between opposition-held Idlib and Aleppo. 

Within three days, opposition forces had captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, in a strategic move that signaled the regime’s vulnerability.

This coalition, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a powerful group under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Julani, was supported by Turkish-backed factions such as the National Front for Liberation, Ahrar al-Sham, and Jaish al-Izza. HTS had long controlled Idlib and brought organizational strength to the operation.

A Rapid Collapse

/AFP/

The offensive gained momentum as opposition forces captured significant cities, including Hama, Homs, and eventually Deraa, the birthplace of the 2011 uprising. By Saturday, government forces were in full retreat, abandoning key positions across the country.

In Damascus, jubilant crowds celebrated the regime’s fall. People climbed atop tanks, toppled statues of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, and waved the revolutionary flag. In mosques and public squares, Syrians prayed and chanted slogans of freedom.

Despite the opposition’s swift progress, some areas, such as the coastal governorates of Lattakia and Tartous, remained untouched. These regions, traditionally seen as al-Assad strongholds, were bypassed in the offensive.

Why Did Al-Assad Fall?

Al-Assad’s downfall was driven by multiple factors, including a crumbling economy, faltering military support, and widespread dissatisfaction. Syria’s economy had been on life support, reportedly sustained by the illicit Captagon trade. The financial strain left soldiers unwilling to fight and civilians struggling to survive.

The regime’s military weakness compounded the issue. For years, al-Assad relied on Russian and Iranian support to maintain his grip on power. However, Russia, bogged down in its war with Ukraine, could not intervene. Meanwhile, Iran and its ally Hezbollah, weakened by Israeli airstrikes, were unable to provide meaningful assistance.

As opposition forces advanced, many of al-Assad’s soldiers abandoned their posts, handing over weapons or fleeing altogether. This lack of resistance allowed the opposition to claim victory swiftly.

Where Is Al-Assad?

/New York Times/

Al-Assad’s whereabouts remained unknown for a while but it was later revealed that Bashar al-Assad and his family had arrived in Russia. Reports suggest he and his defense minister, Ali Abbas, fled Damascus late Saturday night. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that al-Assad left the country via Damascus International Airport before it fell into opposition hands.

Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, however, has stayed behind. Speaking to the press on Sunday, he pledged to maintain government operations until a transitional authority is established.

Syrians Celebrate Freedom

Across Syria, scenes of celebration unfolded as news of al-Assad’s departure spread. Opposition fighters fired into the air in Damascus at sunrise, while civilians gathered in public squares, honking car horns and chanting anti-Assad slogans.

The opposition also opened regime prisons along their advance, including Sednaya prison near the capital. Known as a symbol of the regime’s brutality, Sednaya held thousands of political prisoners and dissidents. HTS declared the prison’s liberation as the end of tyranny, while SOHR confirmed that thousands of detainees were freed.

While al-Assad’s departure is a cause for celebration, the future of Syria remains uncertain. Prime Minister al-Jalali has offered to cooperate with the opposition to establish a transitional government, expressing hope for a “normal country” that builds positive relations with its neighbors and the world.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani echoed this sentiment, assuring Syrians that public institutions would remain functional under the prime minister’s supervision until they are officially handed over.

Syria’s liberation holds lessons for the broader Middle East and North Africa. The 2011 Arab Spring ignited a wave of revolutions, but many countries fell into cycles of instability. The fall of al-Assad, once considered untouchable, highlights the enduring power of collective resistance.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali /RBC-Ukraine/

Africa & The Middle East: Connected Struggles 

The African continent has faced similar struggles against authoritarianism, corruption, and economic hardship. Like Syrians, Africans have witnessed the resilience of grassroots movements, from Sudan’s protests that ousted Omar al-Bashir to Tunisia’s spark of the Arab Spring.

Syria’s future hinges on unity among its opposition factions, a challenge familiar to post-revolutionary African states. As the nation rebuilds, it offers a powerful reminder that freedom, though hard-won, is never guaranteed without vigilance and collaboration.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks the end of an era in Syria’s history, but it also opens the door to a future shaped by the people’s will. For now, the world watches as Syrians celebrate a victory years in the making, hoping that the country’s next chapter will be one of peace and prosperity.

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Faith Nyasuguta

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