Faith Nyasuguta
Somalia’s fragile security situation is facing a new threat as the government considers expelling thousands of Ethiopian troops stationed in the country. This drastic measure hinges on a disputed port deal struck between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a breakaway region seeking independence.
Somalia views the agreement as a brazen infringement on its territorial integrity. Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, secured a 20km stretch of Somaliland coastline in exchange for potential recognition and the development of a naval base and commercial port.
The Somali government considers this a blatant attempt, as National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh-Ali told Reuters, by Ethiopia to legitimize Somaliland’s secession and gain access to strategic maritime resources.”Ethiopia cannot be an ally and at the same time an aggressor,” Sheikh-Ali emphasized.
The potential expulsion of Ethiopian troops carries significant weight. Around 8,000 to 10,000 Ethiopian soldiers currently bolster the African Union Mission in Somalia (Atmis), a vital force combating the militant group al-Shabaab.
Security experts warn that a sudden departure of Ethiopian troops could create a vacuum, as Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Omar highlighted , that al-Shabaab would readily exploit, potentially derailing years of progress in the fight against the insurgency. Al-Shabaab still controls vast swathes of Somali territory and poses a constant threat to the country’s stability.
The simmering dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia stems back to 1991 when Somaliland declared independence following Somalia’s descent into civil war. Despite maintaining a de facto autonomous state with its own government and military, Somaliland has not gained international recognition.
Ethiopia’s recent deal with Somaliland is seen by Mogadishu as a betrayal of their partnership and a step towards undermining Somalia’s claim over the breakaway region.
Somalia has issued a firm ultimatum: Ethiopia must scrap the port deal by the end of June or face the expulsion of all Ethiopian troops. This includes both those deployed under Atmis and through a separate bilateral agreement.
Adding another layer of complexity is the planned withdrawal of Atmis by the end of 2024. Somalia has previously requested a slowdown in the drawdown citing ongoing security concerns.
While a new, smaller peacekeeping mission is expected to take over, Somalia has explicitly stated their desire to exclude Ethiopia from contributing troops, according to AU and African diplomats familiar with the plan. Ali Omar further emphasized, “Given the current political climate, it will not be possible to have ENDF [Ethiopian National Defense Forces] be part of the AU-led mission.”
The coming weeks will be critical. Ethiopia’s response to Somalia’s ultimatum will determine the next steps. If Ethiopia refuses to budge, Somalia might follow through with the expulsion, potentially jeopardizing the fight against al-Shabaab and destabilizing the region.
The international community is closely monitoring the situation, urging both sides to prioritize dialogue and find a peaceful resolution that ensures regional stability and facilitates continued progress against the extremist group.
RELATED:
