Faith Nyasuguta
As the world gears up for the 2024 elections, two pivotal questions loom large: Could Donald Trump stage a comeback, and will there be any contenders against Vladimir Putin’s potential six-year extension?
With approximately 30 countries set to elect their leaders, here are five elections that demand close attention:
Trump-Biden Duel Revisited
On November 5, tens of millions of Americans will cast their votes in the 2024 presidential election, potentially extending incumbent Joe Biden’s term until the age of 86.
Despite polls suggesting that a majority of voters view the gaffe-prone Democrat as too old for the role, his likely rival, former President Donald Trump, at the age of 77, faces similar concerns.
Disinformation is expected to play a role in the campaign, reminiscent of the contentious previous election that concluded with Trump supporters storming the US Capitol in an attempt to impede the certification of Biden’s victory. Trump enters the Republican Party nomination contest as the clear favorite, despite facing multiple criminal trials.
Putin Contemplates Another Six Years
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s leader for the past 23 years, amended the constitution in 2020, theoretically allowing him to stay in power until 2036, potentially surpassing Joseph Stalin’s rule.
The war in Ukraine has been used to suppress dissent, making it unlikely for anyone to oppose his bid for another six years in the March election if he chooses to run. Alexei Navalny, his longtime nemesis, is serving a 19-year sentence, and another potential challenger, Ukraine war veteran and nationalist blogger Igor Girkin, is also detained indefinitely.
Modi’s Strategic Political Move
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party aim for a third term as nearly one billion Indians prepare to cast their votes in the April-May elections.
Modi’s political trajectory, backed by India’s vast Hindu population, has faced criticism for allegedly fueling tensions with the sizable Muslim minority.
Despite concerns about civil liberties, Modi remains a frontrunner, with supporters acknowledging his role in elevating India’s global profile, marked by the recent unmanned Moon landing.
Populists Face EU Test
In June, over 400 million eligible voters across 27 European Union countries will participate in the world’s largest transnational election, selecting 720 European Parliament members responsible for decisions on diverse issues like mobile phone roaming charges and online data privacy.
This election serves as a crucial test for right-wing populists, buoyed by recent victories such as Geert Wilders’ PVV Freedom Party in the Netherlands and Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy last year. The outcome will shape the political landscape and determine the influence of these populist movements.
French far-right National Rally MEP Jordan Bardella, celebrating Wilders’ success, expressed anticipation for the upcoming June 2024 election on Facebook, signaling the continued momentum of right-wing populist movements across Europe.
Mexico’s First Female President on the Horizon?
In a groundbreaking election for Mexico in June, two women are competing to become the country’s first female president, challenging the traditional machismo culture.
Claudia Sheinbaum, a former leftist mayor of Mexico City, is running on behalf of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party. Her contender, Xochitl Galvez, a businesswoman with Indigenous roots, represents an opposition coalition called the Broad Front for Mexico.
Samuel Garcia, a young governor from Nuevo Leon state, has also entered the race. Early polls indicate Sheinbaum holding a significant lead as the nation anticipates this potential historic moment.
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